Scenario Modeling for Radionuclide Soil-To-Plant Transfer Using Dynamic Bayesian Network

Ірина Олександрівна Загірська, Дмитро Костянтинович Левін, Петро Іванович Бідюк

Abstract


The study is aimed at estimating and forecasting the transfer coefficient of radionuclides from soil to agricultural plants based on the real data collected in the areas affected by the Chornobyl disaster. The model was developed using a dynamic Bayesian network, which is an element of novelty, since the use of this tool for radio-ecological modelling was not previously carried out. The factors affecting the radionuclide transfer coefficient were analyzed, and the dependencies transfer level change were identified, depending on the humidity, acidity, soil type, depth of the root system, the content of K+ and Ca2+. Junction tree algorithm was used for inference, as the network consists both of continuous and discrete nodes. The results obtained demonstrate the high accuracy in accordance with general criteria that justifies the use of dynamic Bayesian network to solve this problem. Also the possibility of this approach usage while solving problems of the same class in general was considered. The model allows creating long-term scenarios to identify the possible ways of agriculture development over the areas affected by the Chornobyl disaster and similar anthropogenic disasters.


Keywords


Radionuclide contamination; Dynamic Bayesian network; Probabilistic inference

References


M. de Cort, Atlas on the caesium deposition across Euro­pe after the Chernobyl accident, Brussels, Belgium & Lu­xembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communites, 1998.

V.A. Hrabovskyy, “Monitoring of radionuclide contamina­tion of plants in the western part of Volyn Polissya (Ukraine) during 1994–2007”, Radioprotection, vol. 44, is. 5, pp. 639–645, 2009.

Environmental protection inUkraine 1994–1995, Ukra­ine, Kyiv: Rayevsky publishing, 1997, 95 p.

V.G. Baryakhtar, Chornobyl disaster. Ukraine, Kyiv: Nau­kova dumka, 1995, 560 p.

L. Ciuffo, “137Cs and 40K soil-to-plant transfer Process in Semi-natural: Grassland. Assessment of its Impact on Human Food Chain”, J. Radiation Res., vol. 44, is. 3, pp. 277–283, 2003.

B.S. Priester, “Radionuclide migration in the soils and transfer of them to plants in Chornobyl accident area”, Soil Sci., vol. 10, pp. 51–60, 1990.

M.M. Rahman, “Transfer of radiocaesium from soil to plant by field experiment”, J. Biolog. Sci., vol. 7, is. 4, pp. 673–676, 2007.

B.S. Prister et al., “The Classification of Ukrainian soil systems on the basis of transfer factors of radionuclides from soil to reference plants”, in Proc. Final research coordination meeting organized by the Joint FAO/IAEA Programme of Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture and held in Chania “Classification of soil systems on the basis of transfer factors of radionuclides from soil to reference plants”, Crete, 2003, pp. 153–178.

J. Handl, “Accumulation of (137)Cs in Brazilian soils and its transfer to plants under different climatic conditions”, J. Environ. Radioactivity, vol. 99, is. 2, pp. 271–287, 2008.

N. Sanzharova, “The classification of Russian soil systems on the basis of transfer factors of radionuclides from soil to reference plants”, in Proc. Final research coordination meeting organized by the Joint FAO/IAEA Programme of Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture and held in Chania “Classification of soil systems on the basis of transfer factors of radionuclides from soil to reference plants”, Crete, 2003, pp. 139–144.

R. Djingova, “Influence of soil acidity on the transfer od caesium 137 and other radionuclides from soil to reference plants”, Ibid, pp. 51–58.

O.O. Orlov, “Peculiarities of the season dynamics of 137Cs accumulation by the phytomass of blackberry (Vaccinium murtillus L.) and cowberry (Vaccinium vitis-idaea L.)”, Naukovi visti UkrDLTU, vol. 10.2, pp. 34–43, 2000.

N. Zarubina, “Peculiarities of accumulation of gamma-radiation radionuclides by the macromycetes on the territory of the alienation zone and the “southern trace” after Chornobyl disaster”: Ph.D thesis, KNU, Kyiv, Ukraine, 2002, 20 p.

V.P. Krasnov, Radioecology of forests of Ukrainian Polissya.Ukraine, Zhytomyr: Volyn, 1998, 112 p.

K.A. Murphy. (2007). Brief Introduction to Graphical Models and Bayesian Networks [Online]. Available: http://www.cs.ubc.ca/~murphyk/Bayes/bayes.html/

M.Z. Zgurovskyi et al., “System methodics of designing BN”, Naukovi Visti NTUU “KPI”, no. 4, pp. 47–61, 2007 (in Ukrainian).

E. Wollenberg et al., Anticipationg change: scenarios as a tool for adaptive forest management: a guide. Bogor, Indo­nesia: Center for International Forestry Research, 2000, 36 p.

D. Mercer, “Scenarios made easy”, Long Range Planning, vol. 28, no. 4, pp. 81–86, 1995.

P.J.H. Schoemaker, “Multiple Scenario Development: its conceptual and behavioral foundation”, Strategic Management J., vol. 14, no. 3, pp. 193–213, 1993.


GOST Style Citations






DOI: https://doi.org/10.20535/1810-0546.2015.1.88041

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Copyright (c) 2016 NTUU KPI